A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
